Accurate weather forecasts are critical for societal planning and disaster preparedness. Yet these forecasts remain challenging to produce and evaluate, especially in regions with sparse observational coverage. Current evaluation of artificial intelligence (AI) weather prediction relies primarily on reanalyses, which can obscure important deficiencies. Here we present MAUSAM (Measuring AI Uncertainty during South Asian Monsoon), an evaluation of seven leading AI-based forecasting systems - FourCastNet, FourCastNet-SFNO, Pangu-Weather, GraphCast, Aurora, AIFS, and GenCast - during the South Asian Monsoon, using ground-based weather stations, rain gauge networks, and geostationary satellite imagery. The AI models demonstrate impressive forecast skill during monsoon across a broad range of variables, ranging from large-scale surface temperature and winds to precipitation, cloud cover, and subseasonal to seasonal eddy statistics, highlighting the strength of data-driven weather prediction. However, the models still exhibit systematic errors at finer scales like the underprediction of extreme precipitation, divergent cyclone tracks, and the mesoscale kinetic energy spectra, highlighting avenues for future improvement. A comparison against observations reveals forecast errors up to 15-45% larger than those relative to reanalysis and traditional forecasts, indicating that reanalysis-centric benchmarks can overstate forecast skill. Of the models assessed, AIFS achieves the most consistent representation of atmospheric variables, with GraphCast and GenCast also showing strong skill. The analysis presents a framework for evaluating AI weather models on regional prediction and highlights both the promise and current limitations of AI weather prediction in data-sparse regions, underscoring the importance of observational evaluation for future operational adoption.

Extreme heat is the deadliest weather-related hazard in the United States. Furthermore, it is increasing in intensity, frequency, and duration, making skillful forecasts vital to protecting life and property. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models struggle with extreme heat for medium-range and subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence-based weather prediction (AIWP) models are progressing rapidly. However, it is largely unknown how well AIWP models forecast extremes, especially for medium-range and S2S timescales. This study investigates 2-m temperature forecasts for 60 heat waves across the four boreal seasons and over four CONUS regions at lead times up to 20 days, using two AIWP models (Google GraphCast and Pangu-Weather) and one traditional NWP model (NOAA United Forecast System Global Ensemble Forecast System (UFS GEFS)). First, case study analyses show that both AIWP models and the UFS GEFS exhibit consistent cold biases on regional scales in the 5-10 days of lead time before heat wave onset. GraphCast is the more skillful AIWP model, outperforming UFS GEFS and Pangu-Weather in most locations. Next, the two AIWP models are isolated and analyzed across all heat waves and seasons, with events split among the model's testing (2018-2023) and training (1979-2017) periods. There are cold biases before and during the heat waves in both models and all seasons, except Pangu-Weather in winter, which exhibits a mean warm bias before heat wave onset. Overall, results offer encouragement that AIWP models may be useful for medium-range and S2S predictability of extreme heat.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models often produce "blurry" precipitation forecasts that overestimate drizzle and underestimate extremes. This study provides a novel solution to tackle this problem -- integrating terrain-following coordinates with global mass and energy conservation schemes into AIWP models. Forecast experiments are conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of this solution using FuXi, an example AIWP model, adapted to 1.0-degree grid spacing data. Verification results show large performance gains. The conservation schemes are found to reduce drizzle bias, whereas using terrain-following coordinates improves the estimation of extreme events and precipitation intensity spectra. Furthermore, a case study reveals that terrain-following coordinates capture near-surface winds better over mountains, offering AIWP models more accurate information on understanding the dynamics of precipitation processes. The proposed solution of this study can benefit a wide range of AIWP models and bring insights into how atmospheric domain knowledge can support the development of AIWP models.

Given the interpretability, accuracy, and stability of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, current operational weather forecasting relies heavily on the NWP approach. In the past two years, the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has provided an alternative solution for medium-range (1-10 days) weather forecasting. Bi et al. (2023) (hereafter Bi23) introduced the first AI-based weather prediction (AIWP) model in China, named Pangu-Weather, which offers fast prediction without compromising accuracy. In their work, Bi23 made notable claims regarding its effectiveness in extreme weather predictions. However, this claim lacks persuasiveness because the extreme nature of the two tropical cyclones (TCs) examples presented in Bi23, namely Typhoon Kong-rey and Typhoon Yutu, stems primarily from their intensities rather than their moving paths. Their claim may mislead into another meaning which is that Pangu-Weather works well in predicting unusual typhoon paths, which was not explicitly analyzed. Here, we reassess Pangu-Weather's ability to predict extreme TC trajectories from 2020-2024. Results reveal that while Pangu-Weather overall outperforms NWP models in predicting tropical cyclone (TC) tracks, it falls short in accurately predicting the rarely observed sudden-turning tracks, such as Typhoon Khanun in 2023. We argue that current AIWP models still lag behind traditional NWP models in predicting such rare extreme events in medium-range forecasts.

In just the past few years multiple data-driven Artificial Intelligence Weather Prediction (AIWP) models have been developed, with new versions appearing almost monthly. Given this rapid development, the applicability of these models to operational forecasting has yet to be adequately explored and documented. To assess their utility for operational tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting, the NHC verification procedure is used to evaluate seven-day track and intensity predictions for northern hemisphere TCs from May-November 2023. Four open-source AIWP models are considered (FourCastNetv1, FourCastNetv2-small, GraphCast-operational and Pangu-Weather). The AIWP track forecast errors and detection rates are comparable to those from the best-performing operational forecast models. However, the AIWP intensity forecast errors are larger than those of even the simplest intensity forecasts based on climatology and persistence. The AIWP models almost always reduce the TC intensity, especially within the first 24 h of the forecast, resulting in a substantial low bias. The contribution of the AIWP models to the NHC model consensus was also evaluated. The consensus track errors are reduced by up to 11% at the longer time periods. The five-day NHC official track forecasts have improved by about 2% per year since 2001, so this represents more than a five-year gain in accuracy. Despite substantial negative intensity biases, the AIWP models have a neutral impact on the intensity consensus. These results show that the current formulation of the AIWP models have promise for operational TC track forecasts, but improved bias corrections or model reformulations will be needed for accurate intensity forecasts.